As I evaluate this class, and talk to people around the NFL doing the same, my sense is for a quarterback to be taken in Round 1, there's a good chance a trade will be involved. At least based on current evals of the class.
For teams like Kansas City and Arizona, the value of the pick of a QB in the top 10 just doesn't make a lot of sense, but they could be in play to trade up and take a player like Matt Barkley, Geno Smith or Mike Glennon somewhere late in Round 1. Or, they could forego an early pick altogether and trade down. But unless the QB picture really changes -- and Indy as well as pro days really could shift things -- you can definitely see trades coming into play.
But I can't reflect trades here, only where the picks currently stand. So keep that in mind as you dive in for 2.0. I expect we'll see some changes after the combine in two weeks. As always, juniors and third-year sophomores are noted with an asterisk.
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Updated mock draft | Big Board | Top 5 at each position
1Luke JoeckelKansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 310POS: OT
Analysis: At this point the Chiefs could be weighing at least a handful of players for this spot, if they stay here. As of now, at No. 1, a quarterback shouldn't be in the mix. So I think fans needs to consider that K.C. could be looking to secure the best available player here, period. From there, they either consider a QB with their first pick in Round 2, or perhaps the option of trading into the late first to mazimize value. As for Joeckel, at this time he probably represents the best guaranteed production on the pick value. A gifted technician at left tackle, he is already capable of handling good NFL pass-rushers, and could hold down the position for 10 years. Regardless, the Chiefs will be thinking about total draft value and strategy, not just a single pick here.
2Damontre Moore *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 20HT: 6-4WT: 250POS: DE
Analysis: I'm staying with this selection. The Jaguars were again arguably among the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL in 2012, and need a guaranteed difference-maker. Moore is that kind of player. I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years, and Moore checks that off the list. He's an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. He will get to the quarterback, period. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.
3Star LotuleleiOakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-4WT: 320POS: DT
Analysis: The Raiders are really compelled to take the best player available. They're desperate for immediate impact, and Lotulelei is one of those players that makes everybody around him better. He demands multiple blockers or he'll collapse the pocket, and his instincts, vision, bust and power effect both the pass and the run. Oakland also has needs at linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback, but outside of maybe Dee Milliner, I don't think the Raiders can match the value of this pick, much less improve on it.
4Dee Milliner *Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-1WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: I noted in the previous mock that on a per-play basis, rookie Brandon Boykin might have been the best player in the Eagles secondary toward the end of the season. The Eagles could see a number of personnel changes with the new regime, but they can't afford to fall off significantly in the secondary in a division with Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. You might expect Chip Kelly to score points, but he's always put a great emphasis on his defense too. Milliner has elite grades in terms of awareness and ball skills, and he's a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. And he can flat-out tackle.
5Jarvis Jones *Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-3WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: On Tuesday, Detroit cut veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to clear more cap space. Jones isn't the pure 4-3 defensive end to fill that void, but he'll certainly upgrade the pass rush. No, he's not a perfect fit in the current system, but Gunther Cunningham will be thrilled to scheme with Jones in mind. Roll the tape, and regardless of the how teams tried to stop Jones, you see them fail. He led the nation in sacks even though he was a blocking target, used great leverage to hold up as a run defender and in every case, was simply relentless. Sure, Detroit could also use Milliner if available, but a great pass defense starts with pressure.
6Bjoern Werner *Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 255POS: DE
Analysis: The Browns regressed on defense in 2012, and the pass rush was a culprit. This was, by every standard, a bottom-10 unit, and they simply need to add talent. If they want the best player available at this spot, and a guy who fills a void, it might be Werner by the time we get to April. In fact, by then he could be expected to go higher. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling, but already has a decent portfolio of pass-rush skills. What's great about Werner isn't just the explosiveness as a pass-rusher, it's also his awareness. He keeps his eyes up and disrupts passing lanes. He's a good fit for the Browns.
7Eric FisherArizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-8WT: 305POS: OT
Analysis: This is one of the spots where you could see a QB come off the board, but at this stage a QB taken at No. 7 would be a significant reach. Until we see major strides by one of the QB options, Arizona is better off adding a key piece it can start right away and looking for a QB in Round 2, or trading up into the late first. And remember, the Cardinals may have moved on a QB in free agency or via a trade by April. Fisher isn't a big name, but he's as a good as any tackle in this class outside of Joeckel. Arizona was a train wreck at tackle for much of 2012, and even with some young guys on the roster, they need to consider a better option if available.
8Alec Ogletree *Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 237POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He's a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that's also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There's no reason he can't work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.
9Dion JordanNew York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 243POS: OLB
Analysis: Yes, they really need skill position upgrades, with wide receiver, tight end and running back all areas of need. But the value is an issue, so if the Jets don't trade down, they're better served going with the best player available at another position of need. I'm a big fan of the interior, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples in place, but the Jets could really use an edge rusher. Jordan is light, but he has long arms, great athleticism and I think can be a guy they don't need to shuttle in and out depending on downs and matchups. He has star potential, and the pass rush gets some help.
10Barkevious Mingo *Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 242POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo sits on that fine line you can find in this range of the draft. He has the natural skills and athleticism of a devastating pass-rusher in the mold of an Aldon Smith -- those guys don't last into the teens. But there's a small bust potential too if his technique doesn't get better. The guy is long, fast, has a great burst and can flat-out turn the corner. But he also needs to play with better leverage, take on blockers more effectively and find ways to simply be more productive. When you watch Mingo at his best, closing on a QB, he looks too good to pass up. Tennessee needs the pass-rush help, and Mingo could develop into a star.